“Silver and gold have I none, but such as I have I give thee.”
Peter
So far we’ve had The Age of Faith, The Age of Reason, The Age of Louis XIV, The Age of Voltaire and The Age of Napoleon. Now we’re living in The Age of Obama. What distinguishes an age is the person around whom that age is associated. It has always been a “he” and for reasons passing understanding, “he” has always been French. In every age, there's an almost self-conscious understanding that “he” will write the next chapter of our story.
It was no coincidence that Justice Roberts flubbed his lines during the swearing in. After all, he’d been placed on the Supreme Court to undo 60 years of civil rights legislation. And there he stood, tasked with the responsibility of handing the knife to the man who would use it to gut him and his hopes of reversing 60 years of progress.
Plus there was Michelle, standing right there, holding Lincoln’s bible for her husband. I told a friend of mine a year ago that Michelle Obama was the baddest bleep in the world! At the time, she had her doubts. She called me the day before the inauguration to tell me she now knew what I meant. And she agreed.
I remember the first time my son used the words “founding fathers.” He was in eighth grade; studying for the constitution. I told him to tell his teacher that they were not his fathers, his fathers, were their slaves. So I was only able to give the inaugural address an A- for that momentary imprecision, when he used two simple words that only applied to some, but not all.
Reverend Lowery made it alright though. He talked about a world where a black man had a chance, a brown man could stick around, yellow was mellow, red could get ahead and a white man could embrace what was right.
This is without a doubt the proudest moment of my life. All kinds of thoughts are reorganizing themselves in my mind. I’m putting away childish things.
I finally got it through my thick skull that America was sorry, sorry for all of it. For slavery, for its war of choice, for Katrina, for segregation, for Jim Crow, for inventing financial instruments that brought the world to its knees and most especially, America was sorry for putting such a small man in such a big job these past eight years.
The selection and election of Barack Hussein Obama was America’s great apology. It’s our way of saying we’re prepared to turn over a new leaf, to start anew. The old ways just don’t work anymore.
It’s fascinating to consider that of the 44 presidents, America has produced but two truly great ones. George Washington was arguably a great general, but hardly a great president. His claim to fame was the decision to end his presidency after two terms. It’s clear his cabinet was more impressive than he ever was.
Abraham Lincoln preserved the union, financed the railroads and got us to think long and hard about who we were as a people. But it took Franklin Delano Roosevelt to define the parameters of the modern presidency. To do so, he was forced to ignore the limits set by Washington. He was the only man to be elected president four times. He was the closest thing this country has ever had to a king. That has to count as a demerit against whatever greatness he achieved.
Kennedy had the potential for greatness, but his life was cut short. Lyndon Johnson did great things, but never managed to be great. Vietnam proved his undoing. There are those who claim Ronald Reagan was great, but that’s nonsense. He was the quintessential example of style over substance. Style counts, but mustn’t be confused with greatness.
We now have a president possessed of both style and substance. It’s only happened twice in history. Once with Lincoln and a second time with Roosevelt. I put the odds at 50/50 that we’re about to witness greatness in a president for ourselves. And I like those odds.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Obama and the Press
"I want to make money."
Rod Blagojevich
I haven’t posted in a while. Obama’s election really threw me for a loop. I’ve been grappling with it ever since it happened. I’m trying to figure out what it means to me. It’s been months and I’m still not there yet.
There are a few things I’m clear on. I’ve been clear for some time that Rod Blagojevich hasn’t been found guilty of anything. My sister’s a lawyer and she assures me that Patrick Fitzgerald has him cold on conspiracy. It’s a pretty hollow conspiracy that never gets past the point of conspiring. According to the recordings, he expressly instructed his emissary not to discuss a quid pro quo arrangement. It wasn’t much of a conspiracy.
Not that Blago is the sharpest tool in the shed. He’s on record stating that all Obama wanted to give him in exchange for the senate appointment was “appreciation.” Who wouldn’t want the appreciation of the leader of the free world? Answer: Blago. He may be a minority of one on that one.
The truth is; the press screwed the pooch on this from the beginning. It was the knowledge that the press was going with the story that forced Patrick Fitzgerald to arrest Blagojevich before he was ready. Even more interesting is that somebody leaked. Somebody told the press. There’s been next to no discussion of the press’s integral role in this fracas. And no one has called for an investigation of the leak.
No doubt Fritz lacks the appetite to investigate yet another leak. He probably had his fill during his investigation of the Valerie Plame case. He nailed Scooter Libby on that one and locked up several members of the press for refusing to cooperate. The press isn’t looking forward to seeing its members locked up for defying subpoenas. And how exactly is he supposed to investigate a leak in his own operation when he made his name famous investigating the leaks of others? It’s a bit awkward.
The MSM really fell down on its job. When Lisa Madigan tried to do an end run around the constitution, there was no discussion of the utter irresponsibility of her actions. There has always been a clear distinction between malfeasance and incapacity. This distinction was explicitly discussed at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. Lisa Madigan’s attempt to blur that distinction was an abomination. She deserved to be castigated for it. Instead, the MSM spent all its energies telling Obama what he should be doing to pacify them!
Jesse White’s refusal to sign off on Roland Burris’s appointment to Obama’s seat or give a valid reason for his refusal is equally atrocious. And for the record, the suggestion that the governor is “tainted” is not a valid reason. Rod Blagojevich is innocent until proven guilty and unless there’s evidence that there was some sort of “pay or play” arrangement between Mr. Burris and Governor Blagojevich, the appointment should be certified.
Nobody wants to stand up and do the right thing. If the legislature doesn’t want Governor Blagojevich to make appointments, they should strip him of his power to appoint, through impeachment or other legislation. If the press wants Obama to be more forthcoming, they should be a little more forthcoming themselves and tell people what they need to know, along with what they want to know.
What everybody wants is for Blago to go away: everybody except Blago, of course. What everybody needs to understand is that it doesn’t do anybody any good if we get rid of him by going around the rules. That’s what he did. That’s why he’s in so much trouble.
Rod Blagojevich
I haven’t posted in a while. Obama’s election really threw me for a loop. I’ve been grappling with it ever since it happened. I’m trying to figure out what it means to me. It’s been months and I’m still not there yet.
There are a few things I’m clear on. I’ve been clear for some time that Rod Blagojevich hasn’t been found guilty of anything. My sister’s a lawyer and she assures me that Patrick Fitzgerald has him cold on conspiracy. It’s a pretty hollow conspiracy that never gets past the point of conspiring. According to the recordings, he expressly instructed his emissary not to discuss a quid pro quo arrangement. It wasn’t much of a conspiracy.
Not that Blago is the sharpest tool in the shed. He’s on record stating that all Obama wanted to give him in exchange for the senate appointment was “appreciation.” Who wouldn’t want the appreciation of the leader of the free world? Answer: Blago. He may be a minority of one on that one.
The truth is; the press screwed the pooch on this from the beginning. It was the knowledge that the press was going with the story that forced Patrick Fitzgerald to arrest Blagojevich before he was ready. Even more interesting is that somebody leaked. Somebody told the press. There’s been next to no discussion of the press’s integral role in this fracas. And no one has called for an investigation of the leak.
No doubt Fritz lacks the appetite to investigate yet another leak. He probably had his fill during his investigation of the Valerie Plame case. He nailed Scooter Libby on that one and locked up several members of the press for refusing to cooperate. The press isn’t looking forward to seeing its members locked up for defying subpoenas. And how exactly is he supposed to investigate a leak in his own operation when he made his name famous investigating the leaks of others? It’s a bit awkward.
The MSM really fell down on its job. When Lisa Madigan tried to do an end run around the constitution, there was no discussion of the utter irresponsibility of her actions. There has always been a clear distinction between malfeasance and incapacity. This distinction was explicitly discussed at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. Lisa Madigan’s attempt to blur that distinction was an abomination. She deserved to be castigated for it. Instead, the MSM spent all its energies telling Obama what he should be doing to pacify them!
Jesse White’s refusal to sign off on Roland Burris’s appointment to Obama’s seat or give a valid reason for his refusal is equally atrocious. And for the record, the suggestion that the governor is “tainted” is not a valid reason. Rod Blagojevich is innocent until proven guilty and unless there’s evidence that there was some sort of “pay or play” arrangement between Mr. Burris and Governor Blagojevich, the appointment should be certified.
Nobody wants to stand up and do the right thing. If the legislature doesn’t want Governor Blagojevich to make appointments, they should strip him of his power to appoint, through impeachment or other legislation. If the press wants Obama to be more forthcoming, they should be a little more forthcoming themselves and tell people what they need to know, along with what they want to know.
What everybody wants is for Blago to go away: everybody except Blago, of course. What everybody needs to understand is that it doesn’t do anybody any good if we get rid of him by going around the rules. That’s what he did. That’s why he’s in so much trouble.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
P.E.W.S. for Obama
P.E.W.S. – Post Election Withdrawal Syndrome
urbandictionary.com
After Obama got elected I became depressed. Not for the usual reasons political junkies get depressed post election. It was a question asked of Tavis Smiley that night that got to me. He was asked if he thought this meant “the issue of race had been put behind us once and for all.” It’s a question conservatives have been asking since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed. Tavis answered no and gave his reasons. They were the same reasons I would’ve given on November 3rd. And yet somehow they sounded shockingly anachronistic.
Obama had gone up against every single racist and every single racist institution in this country and beat them. To go back and talk as if we hadn’t just witnessed a tectonic shift in our democracy seemed ludicrous. The burden had clearly been shifted. The ball was in our court as African Americans in a way it had never been before.
I had watched the average of all the public polling ten days prior to the election. Obama maintained a 6-8 point lead heading into Election Day. I cut the average in half and estimated that Obama would win by 3-4 points. He ended up winning by 6.7 points or roughly 7%. The polls had been dead on.
My practice of cutting the polls in half to account for racism was anachronistic. I was doing the same thing Tavis did. I was thinking about this country as if it were stuck in one place. Obama didn’t assume that institutional racism was gone from the political scene. He formulated a strategy for overcoming it. I hadn't taken that into account.
America will give anybody a shot. Whatever remaining doubts there were about that are gone. It gave me a visceral sense of what people mean when they say this is the greatest country on earth. I’ve always had my qualms because of the legacy of slavery and what that meant for my ancestors. But this cast it all in a new light. I began thinking maybe it’s time to wipe the slate clean. Start fresh.
And what about the rash of violence directed at the black community post election? Growing pains, I thought. The very idea is a bit startling. That this country, at this late date, is still growing; still reaching for some sort of dynamic equilibrium with its citizens. Obama was right to point out that it’s a mistake to think of this country as static. That single insight probably explains better than anything why he’s president-elect. He took his own advice. He lived it.
And while minorities shouldn’t have to overcome anything more than anyone else, there are obviously plenty of whites out there who are willing to make the effort worthwhile. That’s actually kind of cool.
Does this mean we need to abolish Affirmative Action programs, once and for all? If we can get our public school system properly funded the answer is a resounding yes. I never thought I’d live to say that. But I’ve come to realize that this has to be the goal. It’s what reconciliation means. Everybody gives a little.
The correct answer to the question put to Tavis Smiley is that we’re at the one yard line now. Or maybe it’s the ten yard line, but certainly no more than that. We have to decide both individually and collectively, whether to punt or go for the touchdown. The burden is on us to show the kind of grit and determination Obama demonstrated with his victory.
Barack Obama has provided us with a model for achievement that runs across color or creed. He’s shown us an America we didn’t even know was there. For that, we as a nation are already forever in his debt. He’s given us hope. The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name. Powerful forces will line up against us. They have hopes too. Obama wants to bring us all under the same tent and forge a compromise. I’m not sure any of us will be happy with it. But we’ve come too far to turn back now.
urbandictionary.com
After Obama got elected I became depressed. Not for the usual reasons political junkies get depressed post election. It was a question asked of Tavis Smiley that night that got to me. He was asked if he thought this meant “the issue of race had been put behind us once and for all.” It’s a question conservatives have been asking since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed. Tavis answered no and gave his reasons. They were the same reasons I would’ve given on November 3rd. And yet somehow they sounded shockingly anachronistic.
Obama had gone up against every single racist and every single racist institution in this country and beat them. To go back and talk as if we hadn’t just witnessed a tectonic shift in our democracy seemed ludicrous. The burden had clearly been shifted. The ball was in our court as African Americans in a way it had never been before.
I had watched the average of all the public polling ten days prior to the election. Obama maintained a 6-8 point lead heading into Election Day. I cut the average in half and estimated that Obama would win by 3-4 points. He ended up winning by 6.7 points or roughly 7%. The polls had been dead on.
My practice of cutting the polls in half to account for racism was anachronistic. I was doing the same thing Tavis did. I was thinking about this country as if it were stuck in one place. Obama didn’t assume that institutional racism was gone from the political scene. He formulated a strategy for overcoming it. I hadn't taken that into account.
America will give anybody a shot. Whatever remaining doubts there were about that are gone. It gave me a visceral sense of what people mean when they say this is the greatest country on earth. I’ve always had my qualms because of the legacy of slavery and what that meant for my ancestors. But this cast it all in a new light. I began thinking maybe it’s time to wipe the slate clean. Start fresh.
And what about the rash of violence directed at the black community post election? Growing pains, I thought. The very idea is a bit startling. That this country, at this late date, is still growing; still reaching for some sort of dynamic equilibrium with its citizens. Obama was right to point out that it’s a mistake to think of this country as static. That single insight probably explains better than anything why he’s president-elect. He took his own advice. He lived it.
And while minorities shouldn’t have to overcome anything more than anyone else, there are obviously plenty of whites out there who are willing to make the effort worthwhile. That’s actually kind of cool.
Does this mean we need to abolish Affirmative Action programs, once and for all? If we can get our public school system properly funded the answer is a resounding yes. I never thought I’d live to say that. But I’ve come to realize that this has to be the goal. It’s what reconciliation means. Everybody gives a little.
The correct answer to the question put to Tavis Smiley is that we’re at the one yard line now. Or maybe it’s the ten yard line, but certainly no more than that. We have to decide both individually and collectively, whether to punt or go for the touchdown. The burden is on us to show the kind of grit and determination Obama demonstrated with his victory.
Barack Obama has provided us with a model for achievement that runs across color or creed. He’s shown us an America we didn’t even know was there. For that, we as a nation are already forever in his debt. He’s given us hope. The hope of a skinny kid with a funny name. Powerful forces will line up against us. They have hopes too. Obama wants to bring us all under the same tent and forge a compromise. I’m not sure any of us will be happy with it. But we’ve come too far to turn back now.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
The Obama Effect
“Vote Early – and vote Often”
William Hale Thompson
Lately I've been thinking about Obama's Philadelphia speech. In that speech, he got me to think about the color of my skin in ways I never had before. It afforded me a new paradigm, a new way of thinking about my place in society. It also gave me the best insight into his problem solving skills. Jeremiah Wright was the problem, the Philadelphia speech was the solution.
I’m convinced McCain made the same mistake Hillary made. He didn’t take Obama seriously until it was almost too late. If you've watched McCain on the stump over the past few days, he’s clearly taking him seriously now. When he rolled out the Paris Hilton ad several months ago, I told friends at the time it was a mistake. My reasoning was simple. He was going to have to face Obama during the debates and people would see for themselves that Obama isn’t an empty suit. What was he going to do then?
Then he spent a week assaulting Obama about “Lipstick on a pig.” I watched in horror as the press justified its coverage of this nonstory. But more to the point, it went to my objection to the entire approach. It lacked seriousness.
One might argue that the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was the penultimate example of the McCain’s refusal to take this election seriously. But it may have simply been a mistake. It’s interesting to consider that the only two women ever to make it on the ticket of a major party, were unable to convince the public they were up to the job. In 1984 it was Geraldine Ferraro, in 2008, Sarah Palin.
Obama seems to have an uncanny ability to get his opponents to underestimate him. That’s at least one “Obama effect” but there are others. I mentioned above the effect he’s had on me.
One of my readers sent me a photo array of a group of supporters called “Rednecks for Obama.” In my previous post, I mentioned another group known as “Racists for Obama.” Obama supporters have reported encounters with "Racists for Obama" while canvassing. They even have their own acronym – C.H.A.N.G.E. (Come Help a N*gger Get Elected). They throw around the N word with abandon when talking to canvassers, but insist they fully intend to vote for Obama on Election Day.
Professional pollsters have taken an acute interest in “Racists for Obama.” They estimate that some 23% of voters with “negative views of African Americans” will pull the lever for Obama. Personally, I have mixed feelings about it. But considering that McCain’s chief pollster, Bill McInturff, all but declared that he’s counting on these voters on Election Day, I’d just as soon they voted for Obama.
We mustn't confuse “Rednecks for Obama” with “Racists for Obama.” The photos I have show Rednecks for Obama wearing T-Shirts, wielding banners and shaking Obama’s hand at rallies, smiling all the while. Obviously, a redneck ain't necessarily a racist.
There’s been much discussion of something called “the reverse Bradley effect.” Tom Bradley was the African American former Mayor of Los Angeles who was 7 points up in the polls in California, only to lose a tight race to his white opponent, George Deukmejian. This led to speculation that many whites simply lied to pollsters.
Conservative Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker cites a number of “mostly white-collar men and women who speak republican in public” but who tell her privately that they will vote for Obama. But as we’ve seen, there are lots of blue collar workers poised to do exactly the same thing; some privately, others not so privately. I call it the Obama Effect. It means different things in different circumstances, but it all seems to be adding up to the same thing. Change.
William Hale Thompson
Lately I've been thinking about Obama's Philadelphia speech. In that speech, he got me to think about the color of my skin in ways I never had before. It afforded me a new paradigm, a new way of thinking about my place in society. It also gave me the best insight into his problem solving skills. Jeremiah Wright was the problem, the Philadelphia speech was the solution.
I’m convinced McCain made the same mistake Hillary made. He didn’t take Obama seriously until it was almost too late. If you've watched McCain on the stump over the past few days, he’s clearly taking him seriously now. When he rolled out the Paris Hilton ad several months ago, I told friends at the time it was a mistake. My reasoning was simple. He was going to have to face Obama during the debates and people would see for themselves that Obama isn’t an empty suit. What was he going to do then?
Then he spent a week assaulting Obama about “Lipstick on a pig.” I watched in horror as the press justified its coverage of this nonstory. But more to the point, it went to my objection to the entire approach. It lacked seriousness.
One might argue that the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was the penultimate example of the McCain’s refusal to take this election seriously. But it may have simply been a mistake. It’s interesting to consider that the only two women ever to make it on the ticket of a major party, were unable to convince the public they were up to the job. In 1984 it was Geraldine Ferraro, in 2008, Sarah Palin.
Obama seems to have an uncanny ability to get his opponents to underestimate him. That’s at least one “Obama effect” but there are others. I mentioned above the effect he’s had on me.
One of my readers sent me a photo array of a group of supporters called “Rednecks for Obama.” In my previous post, I mentioned another group known as “Racists for Obama.” Obama supporters have reported encounters with "Racists for Obama" while canvassing. They even have their own acronym – C.H.A.N.G.E. (Come Help a N*gger Get Elected). They throw around the N word with abandon when talking to canvassers, but insist they fully intend to vote for Obama on Election Day.
Professional pollsters have taken an acute interest in “Racists for Obama.” They estimate that some 23% of voters with “negative views of African Americans” will pull the lever for Obama. Personally, I have mixed feelings about it. But considering that McCain’s chief pollster, Bill McInturff, all but declared that he’s counting on these voters on Election Day, I’d just as soon they voted for Obama.
We mustn't confuse “Rednecks for Obama” with “Racists for Obama.” The photos I have show Rednecks for Obama wearing T-Shirts, wielding banners and shaking Obama’s hand at rallies, smiling all the while. Obviously, a redneck ain't necessarily a racist.
There’s been much discussion of something called “the reverse Bradley effect.” Tom Bradley was the African American former Mayor of Los Angeles who was 7 points up in the polls in California, only to lose a tight race to his white opponent, George Deukmejian. This led to speculation that many whites simply lied to pollsters.
Conservative Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker cites a number of “mostly white-collar men and women who speak republican in public” but who tell her privately that they will vote for Obama. But as we’ve seen, there are lots of blue collar workers poised to do exactly the same thing; some privately, others not so privately. I call it the Obama Effect. It means different things in different circumstances, but it all seems to be adding up to the same thing. Change.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The McInturff Memo
“They’re basically saying that if you vote for all these democrats, democrats are gonna run the country.”
Chris Hayes, Washington Editor of The Nation
It’s funny how that works. A friend of mine sent me a picture of a house with a Confederate flag flying underneath the traditional American flag. Curiously, there was an Obama sign on the front lawn. As we all know, a number of leading lights in the Republican Party have come out for Obama. Not just Scott McClellan and Colin Powell, who arguably had an axe to grind, but others like Ken Adelman, former senator Larry Pressler, former governor William Weld etc. Ken Adelman practically wrote the plans for the invasion of Iraq and now he’s endorsing Obama.
We were further reminded this week of Mark McKinnon. McKinnon had worked his heart out to secure the republican nomination for John McCain. He told McCain before he started working for him that if Obama were the nominee for the Democratic Party, he would quit. As soon as Obama won the nomination, he quit. He refused to stand in the way of the first African American nominee of a major party. Oddly enough, he would’ve had no problem working against first female nominee of a major party.
Over at Politico, Ben Smith has made numerous entries on his blog on the obscure subject of Racists for Obama. Experts estimate that roughly 25% of voters who hold negative views of African Americans are planning to vote for Obama.
That brings me to several problems I have with the McInturff Memo, released yesterday. My biggest problem with the memo was his estimate of how rural, uneducated whites would vote on Nov. 4th. Andrew Kohut, Executive Director for Pew Research concurs with his conclusion that the 8% of respondents who refuse to respond to polls tend to be non-college educated, rural, whites. Statistically, this group tends to have more negative views of African Americans than the rest of the population.
Non-college educated, rural whites broke 2 to 1 for George Bush in 2004. Bill McInturff surmises that this group will break by a similar percentage for John McCain. There are two problems with this conclusion. First, as John McCain keeps telling us, he’s not George Bush and polls show he doesn’t have the same appeal to the base that George Bush had. Sarah Palin does, buy she has her own problems. She’ll help with the base, but she’ll hurt with women and independents.
Second, Barack Obama isn’t John Kerry. I’ve never seen as many high level republicans openly endorse the democratic nominee as have done so in this election cycle. There are legions of them. My own theory is that these leaders in the Republican Party serve to make it okay for republicans to pull the lever for Obama.
This is, I think, the third problem with the McInturff Memo. Republican voters are more organized than democrats. This is reflected in mail-in balloting. Mail-in ballots are showing a 2 to 1 advantage for republicans. This is common in general elections. But how many of those republicans are Obamacans? How many are following the lead of Colin Powell, Christopher Buckley, et al? It’s the ultimate unknown. But I’m having a hard time believing that the behavior of the electorate will differ dramatically from what we’re seeing in the upper echelons of the Republican Party. There will be defections among ordinary republicans, including among non-college educated, rural, whites. The McInturff Memo takes no account of this phenomenon (See Racists for Obama above).
Polls can drive you crazy. I’ve looked at a raft of polls over the past couple of weeks and Obama has maintained an average lead of from 6-8 points nationally. But in that average, I’ve seen leads as high as 15 points and as low a 1 point. I’ve yet to see a poll with McCain in the lead since mid-September. What the McInturff Memo does is look at the polls they like and ignore the polls they don’t like. It’s unprofessional. The only legitimate way to look at the polls is to look at the average.
One of the things that jumped out at me in the memo was his analysis of the African American vote. Typically, African American poll at 78% to 14% in favor of the democratic candidate. The actual vote tends to be closer to 90% to 10%. That is, republicans tend to underperform with African American voters. John McCain is currently polling at 97% to 1%. There’s no room to underperform. For the first time in history, a republican is likely to perform exactly the way the polls predict among African Americans. Bill McInturff believes the polls as it pertains to African Americans, but refuses to believe the polling data on the rest of the population. That’s pretty convenient. It’s also probably wrong.
Chris Hayes, Washington Editor of The Nation
It’s funny how that works. A friend of mine sent me a picture of a house with a Confederate flag flying underneath the traditional American flag. Curiously, there was an Obama sign on the front lawn. As we all know, a number of leading lights in the Republican Party have come out for Obama. Not just Scott McClellan and Colin Powell, who arguably had an axe to grind, but others like Ken Adelman, former senator Larry Pressler, former governor William Weld etc. Ken Adelman practically wrote the plans for the invasion of Iraq and now he’s endorsing Obama.
We were further reminded this week of Mark McKinnon. McKinnon had worked his heart out to secure the republican nomination for John McCain. He told McCain before he started working for him that if Obama were the nominee for the Democratic Party, he would quit. As soon as Obama won the nomination, he quit. He refused to stand in the way of the first African American nominee of a major party. Oddly enough, he would’ve had no problem working against first female nominee of a major party.
Over at Politico, Ben Smith has made numerous entries on his blog on the obscure subject of Racists for Obama. Experts estimate that roughly 25% of voters who hold negative views of African Americans are planning to vote for Obama.
That brings me to several problems I have with the McInturff Memo, released yesterday. My biggest problem with the memo was his estimate of how rural, uneducated whites would vote on Nov. 4th. Andrew Kohut, Executive Director for Pew Research concurs with his conclusion that the 8% of respondents who refuse to respond to polls tend to be non-college educated, rural, whites. Statistically, this group tends to have more negative views of African Americans than the rest of the population.
Non-college educated, rural whites broke 2 to 1 for George Bush in 2004. Bill McInturff surmises that this group will break by a similar percentage for John McCain. There are two problems with this conclusion. First, as John McCain keeps telling us, he’s not George Bush and polls show he doesn’t have the same appeal to the base that George Bush had. Sarah Palin does, buy she has her own problems. She’ll help with the base, but she’ll hurt with women and independents.
Second, Barack Obama isn’t John Kerry. I’ve never seen as many high level republicans openly endorse the democratic nominee as have done so in this election cycle. There are legions of them. My own theory is that these leaders in the Republican Party serve to make it okay for republicans to pull the lever for Obama.
This is, I think, the third problem with the McInturff Memo. Republican voters are more organized than democrats. This is reflected in mail-in balloting. Mail-in ballots are showing a 2 to 1 advantage for republicans. This is common in general elections. But how many of those republicans are Obamacans? How many are following the lead of Colin Powell, Christopher Buckley, et al? It’s the ultimate unknown. But I’m having a hard time believing that the behavior of the electorate will differ dramatically from what we’re seeing in the upper echelons of the Republican Party. There will be defections among ordinary republicans, including among non-college educated, rural, whites. The McInturff Memo takes no account of this phenomenon (See Racists for Obama above).
Polls can drive you crazy. I’ve looked at a raft of polls over the past couple of weeks and Obama has maintained an average lead of from 6-8 points nationally. But in that average, I’ve seen leads as high as 15 points and as low a 1 point. I’ve yet to see a poll with McCain in the lead since mid-September. What the McInturff Memo does is look at the polls they like and ignore the polls they don’t like. It’s unprofessional. The only legitimate way to look at the polls is to look at the average.
One of the things that jumped out at me in the memo was his analysis of the African American vote. Typically, African American poll at 78% to 14% in favor of the democratic candidate. The actual vote tends to be closer to 90% to 10%. That is, republicans tend to underperform with African American voters. John McCain is currently polling at 97% to 1%. There’s no room to underperform. For the first time in history, a republican is likely to perform exactly the way the polls predict among African Americans. Bill McInturff believes the polls as it pertains to African Americans, but refuses to believe the polling data on the rest of the population. That’s pretty convenient. It’s also probably wrong.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Palinized!
“She doesn’t seem to understand the implications of her own thoughts.”
Peggy Noonan
She does seem to understand her appeal. Republican speechwriter and political pundit David Frum coined the term. Palinized. He defines it as alienating and offending both independents and women who comprise the “great national middle” of American politics.
Without a doubt, the single most bizarre news over the weekend was the endorsement of Barack Obama by the Anchorage Daily News. The Anchorage Daily news is the paper of record in Sarah Palin’s hometown of Alaska. The apprehension of a couple of kooks who put together a half baked plot to slaughter 88 African Americans, behead another 14, and then assassinate Barack Obama was arguably even more bizarre, but it happened on Monday.
It must’ve been quite a blow for Sarah Palin to read in her state’s paper “Yet despite her formidable gifts, few who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range.” Ouch! I suppose we can add them to the list of those “alienated and offended” by her selection.
She’s also managed to alienate and offend large swaths of the intelligentsia of the Republican Party. The number of republicans coming out against her since Colin Powell opened the floodgates last Sunday is truly breathtaking. People like defense policy expert Ken Adelman, who wrote in the Huffington Post that she wasn’t even qualified for a middle level position in the administration, let alone the Vice Presidency.
She’s alienated and offended members of the McCain campaign staff as well. Some of the unattributed comments coming from the highest echelons of the campaign are downright atrocious. I don’t know why McCain doesn’t put a stop to it. It’s got to be bad for morale.
In short, the Palinization of the McCain campaign consists of alienating and offending just about everybody except white men without a high school diploma. This is the group most besotted by the governor. What’s ironic is that it was republican pundits like Bill Kristol and Fred Barnes who lobbied the McCain campaign on Sarah Palin’s behalf.
Prompted by the interest expressed by these pundits, campaign manager Rick Davis sat through every single debate performance he could locate of the governor. It didn’t concern him that she seemed “out of her depth” on most of the issues. What impressed him was how she “stuck to her pet issues – energy independence and ethics reform” refusing to talk about anything else.
During her Vice Presidential debate, she let people know up front that she had no intentions of answering the questions that were put to her. That was Rick Davis and Randy Sheunemann’s contribution.
Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker called attention to research showing that men have a tendency to forget their long term interest when a pretty woman happens by. Men and women were offered a small check today or a larger check at a later date. But first they had to look at pictures. The men were shown pictures of “average looking women” and “pretty women.” Women were shown pictures of men. After looking at pictures of “pretty women” men picked the smaller check. That is, a pretty woman made them forget about their long term interests. Women picked the larger check in both cases.
It isn’t yet clear what impact the Palinization of the McCain campaign will have on the results on November 4th. But she’s already had quite an impact on the McCain campaign and on the Republican Party. An impact that’s likely to last well beyond Election Day.
On Election Day, it all comes down to the ground game. Unless of course you’re a man, in which case there’s a risk you’ll be Palinized into forgetting your long term interests. It’s already happened to McCain; let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the rest of us.
Peggy Noonan
She does seem to understand her appeal. Republican speechwriter and political pundit David Frum coined the term. Palinized. He defines it as alienating and offending both independents and women who comprise the “great national middle” of American politics.
Without a doubt, the single most bizarre news over the weekend was the endorsement of Barack Obama by the Anchorage Daily News. The Anchorage Daily news is the paper of record in Sarah Palin’s hometown of Alaska. The apprehension of a couple of kooks who put together a half baked plot to slaughter 88 African Americans, behead another 14, and then assassinate Barack Obama was arguably even more bizarre, but it happened on Monday.
It must’ve been quite a blow for Sarah Palin to read in her state’s paper “Yet despite her formidable gifts, few who have worked closely with the governor would argue she is truly ready to assume command of the most important, powerful nation on earth. To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range.” Ouch! I suppose we can add them to the list of those “alienated and offended” by her selection.
She’s also managed to alienate and offend large swaths of the intelligentsia of the Republican Party. The number of republicans coming out against her since Colin Powell opened the floodgates last Sunday is truly breathtaking. People like defense policy expert Ken Adelman, who wrote in the Huffington Post that she wasn’t even qualified for a middle level position in the administration, let alone the Vice Presidency.
She’s alienated and offended members of the McCain campaign staff as well. Some of the unattributed comments coming from the highest echelons of the campaign are downright atrocious. I don’t know why McCain doesn’t put a stop to it. It’s got to be bad for morale.
In short, the Palinization of the McCain campaign consists of alienating and offending just about everybody except white men without a high school diploma. This is the group most besotted by the governor. What’s ironic is that it was republican pundits like Bill Kristol and Fred Barnes who lobbied the McCain campaign on Sarah Palin’s behalf.
Prompted by the interest expressed by these pundits, campaign manager Rick Davis sat through every single debate performance he could locate of the governor. It didn’t concern him that she seemed “out of her depth” on most of the issues. What impressed him was how she “stuck to her pet issues – energy independence and ethics reform” refusing to talk about anything else.
During her Vice Presidential debate, she let people know up front that she had no intentions of answering the questions that were put to her. That was Rick Davis and Randy Sheunemann’s contribution.
Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker called attention to research showing that men have a tendency to forget their long term interest when a pretty woman happens by. Men and women were offered a small check today or a larger check at a later date. But first they had to look at pictures. The men were shown pictures of “average looking women” and “pretty women.” Women were shown pictures of men. After looking at pictures of “pretty women” men picked the smaller check. That is, a pretty woman made them forget about their long term interests. Women picked the larger check in both cases.
It isn’t yet clear what impact the Palinization of the McCain campaign will have on the results on November 4th. But she’s already had quite an impact on the McCain campaign and on the Republican Party. An impact that’s likely to last well beyond Election Day.
On Election Day, it all comes down to the ground game. Unless of course you’re a man, in which case there’s a risk you’ll be Palinized into forgetting your long term interests. It’s already happened to McCain; let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the rest of us.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Our Man Colin
“There will be a crisis that will come along on the 21st or 22nd of January that we don’t even know about right now.”
Colin Powell, Oct. 19th 2008
Joe Biden said essentially the same thing a couple of days later to dramatically different effect. Colin Powell’s statement makes clear that it doesn’t make any difference who wins; the next president will be tested. But the problem with Biden’s statement is that it was off message.
At a time when Obama was cleaning McCain's clock on the economy, Biden decided to talk about foreign policy. It was a mistake. My guess is his ego got in the way. His strong suit is foreign policy, so maybe he was feeling a little left out.
Colin Powell introduced his endorsement of Barack Obama by suggesting that as a moderate, he didn’t care for his party’s move to the right over the past couple of years. He seemed even more taken aback by McCain’s embrace of this rightward movement. The thing that jumps out at you when you watch his endorsement - and I’ve watched it several times now – is how much it hurt him to “disappoint” his friend.
He wasn’t just turning his back on a friend. He was turning his back on a fellow soldier; a wounded veteran, no less. He said he’d gone back and forth for months before coming to this decision and I believe him. It’s the reason I was so offended when Rush Limbaugh and his ilk accused him of making this choice purely on the basis of the color of his skin.
Considering that Sarah Palin stated at one of her rallies that “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t support other women” accusing a black man of supporting the black candidate because he's black is a bit hypocritical. She was quoting Madeline Albright out of context at the time, but the message was clear: women should vote her because she’s a woman. Rush Limbaugh didn't have a problem with that.
The very selection of Sarah Palin was based on the idea that she would appeal to white women, frustrated by the way Hillary Clinton was treated in the primaries. It didn’t work out, but Rush was more than happy to take whatever votes republicans could get, however they could get them.
As an African American, nothing offends me more than the suggestion I voted for Obama in the primaries or that I intend to vote for him in the general election, because he’s black. I’m voting for Obama because I think he’s the best man for the job.
But Colin anticipated the charge and dealt with it. He spelled out his reasons in plain English. Reasons people like Rush Limbaugh avoided dealing with by blaming it all on skin color. Colin Powell regards the current economic crisis as the “number one issue.” He said McCain seemed “unsure” what to do about the economy. That was a concern.
McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was also a concern. Having observed her over the past couple of months, he concluded she wasn’t qualified to be president, which, after all, is the job of the vice president. What piqued my interest was the way in which he dovetailed that observation with a discussion of Obama’s “intellectual curiosity, his depth of knowledge, his approach to looking at problems…” The stark contrast with Sarah Palin i.e. her lack of intellectual curiosity, depth of knowledge or serious approach to looking at problems, spoke volumes about John McCain’s judgment.
Colin has had some experience with people in the upper echelons of power who lack what he called “intellectual vigor.” My guess is he’s had his fill of the type and he doesn’t understand why John McCain would want someone like that at his side, a mere heartbeat away from the presidency.
Above all, Colin Powell loves his country. He judged McCain's indecisiveness on the economy, the selection of Sarah Palin and certain of his campaign tactics as disqualifying. In short, he no longer recognizes his old friend. And unlike John McCain, he really is putting his country first.
Colin Powell, Oct. 19th 2008
Joe Biden said essentially the same thing a couple of days later to dramatically different effect. Colin Powell’s statement makes clear that it doesn’t make any difference who wins; the next president will be tested. But the problem with Biden’s statement is that it was off message.
At a time when Obama was cleaning McCain's clock on the economy, Biden decided to talk about foreign policy. It was a mistake. My guess is his ego got in the way. His strong suit is foreign policy, so maybe he was feeling a little left out.
Colin Powell introduced his endorsement of Barack Obama by suggesting that as a moderate, he didn’t care for his party’s move to the right over the past couple of years. He seemed even more taken aback by McCain’s embrace of this rightward movement. The thing that jumps out at you when you watch his endorsement - and I’ve watched it several times now – is how much it hurt him to “disappoint” his friend.
He wasn’t just turning his back on a friend. He was turning his back on a fellow soldier; a wounded veteran, no less. He said he’d gone back and forth for months before coming to this decision and I believe him. It’s the reason I was so offended when Rush Limbaugh and his ilk accused him of making this choice purely on the basis of the color of his skin.
Considering that Sarah Palin stated at one of her rallies that “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t support other women” accusing a black man of supporting the black candidate because he's black is a bit hypocritical. She was quoting Madeline Albright out of context at the time, but the message was clear: women should vote her because she’s a woman. Rush Limbaugh didn't have a problem with that.
The very selection of Sarah Palin was based on the idea that she would appeal to white women, frustrated by the way Hillary Clinton was treated in the primaries. It didn’t work out, but Rush was more than happy to take whatever votes republicans could get, however they could get them.
As an African American, nothing offends me more than the suggestion I voted for Obama in the primaries or that I intend to vote for him in the general election, because he’s black. I’m voting for Obama because I think he’s the best man for the job.
But Colin anticipated the charge and dealt with it. He spelled out his reasons in plain English. Reasons people like Rush Limbaugh avoided dealing with by blaming it all on skin color. Colin Powell regards the current economic crisis as the “number one issue.” He said McCain seemed “unsure” what to do about the economy. That was a concern.
McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was also a concern. Having observed her over the past couple of months, he concluded she wasn’t qualified to be president, which, after all, is the job of the vice president. What piqued my interest was the way in which he dovetailed that observation with a discussion of Obama’s “intellectual curiosity, his depth of knowledge, his approach to looking at problems…” The stark contrast with Sarah Palin i.e. her lack of intellectual curiosity, depth of knowledge or serious approach to looking at problems, spoke volumes about John McCain’s judgment.
Colin has had some experience with people in the upper echelons of power who lack what he called “intellectual vigor.” My guess is he’s had his fill of the type and he doesn’t understand why John McCain would want someone like that at his side, a mere heartbeat away from the presidency.
Above all, Colin Powell loves his country. He judged McCain's indecisiveness on the economy, the selection of Sarah Palin and certain of his campaign tactics as disqualifying. In short, he no longer recognizes his old friend. And unlike John McCain, he really is putting his country first.
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