Monday, August 11, 2008

Woulda-Shoulda-Coulda

I sometimes think the Democrats were put on this earth to harm themselves through some self mutilation. The latest came today when Howard Wolfson decided to say his girl Hillary would be the nominee if it hadn't been for Edwards. And if the press had dug up the story on his infidelities earlier she would have made a race of Iowa thereby a domino effect of maintaining momentum through super Tuesday. Well she did win New Hampshire immediately after, so where was that momentum after that primary?

By Wolfson dredging up this unnecessary piece of news, he's yet another Clintonite trying to make an excuse for her loss. His connection of the dots is truly wild and off base. There were more complex mitigating factors that led to her loss and those folk can see it if they would just admit it to themselves. Don't be surprised to see Wolfson on Keith Olbermann's Countdown of the "Worst Persons In the World" list tonight for even bringing up this hogwash in connection with the tragic results of one man's indiscretion.

I sometimes get annoyed with all of this revisionist history where everyone wants to say she won the popular vote but was cut off at the pass by the Democratic Party organization, an organization she was and still is a major player. She and hubby just don't hold the majority anymore.

To be honest, I can't wait and I think the world can't wait until the election is over. Impatience is building to an explosive level and the country needs to get its act together no matter who wins. For the Clinton democrats, this need to continue to find fault has reached a point of overkill and everyone is saying get over it. They still think there's hope she could be the veep, a concept I totally dismissed, but after the Edwards matter, it has me thinking her prospects may not be too far fetched after all--considering Obama's other choices seem to be more of same. What keeps her out of the game is loose baggage and the fear her arrival would rally a rather quiet and seemingly disinterested Republican base. Although, they're not that disinterested considering Obama only leads McCain by a handful of loose pocket change in the questionably accurate or inaccurate latest polls. But the conventional thinking is why wake up a sleeping giant.

Party unity is a catch phrase for a rather dysfunctional party. Unless the Democratic party can pull off the kind of show at the convention that equals or betters the opening ceremony at the Beijing Olympics, the party has got to find a way to bury all of this despair about woulda-shoulda-coulda. No one will ever know what impact Edwards would have had on the nomination prospects. To me, what should give the Democratic party fathers and mothers pause is, how much of a heartbeat away could the man have been from getting the nomination or better yet how close was he to being someone's running mate or if it got that far, cabinet member? We can only dare to dream and then wake up and apologize for even thinking it.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Similar Differences

"Politics ain't beanbag."
Peter Finley Dunne

I hadn't realized what a conservative campaign Carter ran in 1976. When I think of the Carter Administration, I think of human rights, long gas lines, high inflation and the hostage crisis. But that’s separate from the winning campaign he ran in ‘76’. A good indication of how conservative a campaign Carter ran is that he was the last democrat to win the South. He won every single southern state in 1976. The south is and always has been the bedrock of conservatism in America.

The liberal wing of the Democratic Party was so afraid that Jimmy Carter was “too conservative” that they got Jerry Brown and Frank Church to enter the race late in the season. They beat him in several primaries, but like Hillary, by the time they got up a head of steam, it was already too late. Carter was also the last Democrat to win with more than 50% of the vote. Clinton won twice with less than 50% of the vote. Al Gore won more than 50% of the vote, but lost the election.

Republicans know how to win national elections. They’ve won 7 of the last ten presidential elections by mastering the fine art of voter suppression, intimidation and manipulation. Even when they lose, they manage to keep it close. Carter beat Gerald Ford, the man who pardoned Richard Nixon, by 2 points. And if Ross Perot hadn’t siphoned off 19% of the conservative vote in ‘92’ it’s not clear that Clinton would’ve ever been president.

When I see Obama establishing himself as a centrist, I try to keep these facts in mind. Jimmy Carter wouldn’t have won the South if he hadn’t run a conservative campaign. Clinton called himself a “New Democrat” to distinguish himself from the liberal wing of the party. And while many in the main stream media liken the current campaign to Carter vs. Reagan in 1980, I prefer the comparison to Carter vs. Ford in 1976.

The Republican Party was at its lowest ebb in ‘76’ after Nixon sullied all things Republican, much like Bush today. And the Democratic Party offered up an “outsider” with a “paper thin resume.” Carter had been a state senator and one-term governor from Georgia.

In fact, only a lack of understanding of history explains why the MSM can’t comprehend why Obama isn’t further ahead in the polls. It’s not because he’s black; it’s because he’s a Democrat and Republicans are better at this than they are. Republicans may lose this time, but they’ll keep it close. It’s what they do.

Monday, July 28, 2008

McCained!

I read Frank Rich's opinion in the N.Y. Times today, and he really put it in perspective for me, what is this guy McCain doing running for president? I'm a bit perplexed, is this the best Republicans could come up with? When looking back to that "White Line Fever" of Grumpy Old Men during the primaries, I'm still left wondering about any of those guys having a chance. No wonder Hillary's kicking herself. This was her best chance. I guess what the Republicans can do is learn from this and put somebody younger and a visionary out there to do battle with the democrats new infusion of youth and vision.

Until then, the party is going to have to live with this dead man walking. A man who gets confused at every turn makes me shudder at the notion of him as Commander-In-Chief. More like Commander-In-Shriek. I mean this dude wanted to land on an oil rig in the gulf in a helicopter to talk about America pumping its way out of oil dependence. Thanks to Hurricane "Hello Dolly" that didn't happen. As Rich put it, that would have been McCain's "Mission Accomplished" moment.

With a country and world caught in the grips of some sci-fi movie apocalyptic present, the one thing we don't need is Barnum and Bailey political showmanship. As a man who is known for his bare bones just the facts straight talk reputation, McCain to me is the scariest thing in politics today. He's a robot powered by a generic alkaline battery that's running on empty.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

How the GOP can win in November

Now Obama's Berlin speech has entered history, the first time in recent memory that a current presidential candidate has made a major speech in a foreign capital. What's even more impressive, he gave it to a now estimated 200,000 people in attendance all cheering and applauding and believing in a bright hopeful future. The last time there were that many people on the Berlin streets for an Amercian president they were angrily protesting Bush's foreign policy while Bush was the squirrled away out of sight from the angry mob.

And even better John McCain today, in a brilliant display of oneupmanship, gave a speech in a German restaurant in German Village, Ohio which if you squint hard enough is sort of like giving a speech to 200,000 people in Berlin. You think the crackerjack McCain campaign machine is even bothering to make an effort anymore?

The GOP, stuck with a candidate who's dull, confused and old (not only in age but in ideas, attitude and understanding, according to a recent interview, this new thing he's never not sure about called the internet), a lame duck president only slightly more popular than Attila the Hun and major seat losses in Congress in November must be suicidal. However all is not lost. Obama's speech has given the GOP that perfect strategy to beat him in November and it's so simple and obvious.

All they need to do is the hypnotize Obama and make him think that he actually is the GOP candidate and run on their ticket.

But there is another solution but a little but trickier...

Find their own Barack Obama

Which is something they might have been working on if they saw the warning signs in advance instead of pandering to the fears and paranoria of an uncertian and nervous eletorate . Instead they're looking at Mit Romney as McCain's V.P. running mate as if that's going to engerize the race


Good luck

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Where's the fire?

It's pretty obvious to everyone, though they're trying to be polite, that McCain's presidential campaign is, to put it mildly, rather lackluster. There's no excitement, no sense of urgency, no "ooomph". Where's the drive? Where's the fire?

In fact, it was reported a few weeks ago that even staffers on McCain's campaign have not-so-secretly acknowledged to insiders and a few media reporters that it's plainly clear that McCain is going to lose and that they're only working on the campaign for a temporary job and to add something to their resume.

But the real question that is never asked is...does McCain really want to be president? It's no secret that a presidential candidate must possess a more than healthy ego and and aggressive determination, both qualities that seem to be sorely lacking in McCain. Instead he seems to be someone just barely going through the motions. With Obama lately being criticized, especially with his current successful Middle East and European trip, of acting as if he's already president it must be noted that it is definitely reasurring to see someone who really wants the job instead of someone who looks most of the time as if he wishes he was someplace else.

It may be that McCain is running for the only reason is simply that now he can. Most would agree that his best shot was back in 2000 and could have could have been the GOP candidate if it wasn't for Karl Rove's dirty tricks campaign against him during the South Carolina primiary race which stopped his roll cold. And let's don't forget that it was only a few months ago that McCain was out of money, his campaign struggling and considered by political pundits and so-called experts alike as being dead in the water and his political career finished. But he rolls on being the good soldier that he's been trained to be because someone has to do it, so it might as well be him. But that won't be enough to get him elected. With no firm positions or solutions for anything except for staying the course in Iraq and threatening Iran, McCain muddles through fighting the good fight and hoping for a little sympathy.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Surge Protector

His words seem hollow. His stance seems obsessive. For a man who thinks he could have ran the war better than those who still run it makes me wonder what does he gain by promoting his stance on the war? Was the surge McCain’s idea? He has said more troops were needed and to be frank I have to say the surge has worked but not with all of that naked force which the administration thinks turned the tide.

I’ve always felt the Iraqis reached the point that killing each other became a no win situation. I never thought we would see Rwandan style genocide there. There was just too much money in those oil wells to let the country go that far down the drain. I know that sounds callous and cold but oil is thicker than blood and with the world needing their fix of that black drug no one in the world was going to let Iraq fall apart.

The surge appears to have worked and the Democrats need to fess up and come to grips. Obama is being brought kicking and screaming into this concept and I think he’s warming up to it. A sixteen month timetable for withdrawal seems easier to digest. If the surge had failed it would have been harder for him as president to withdraw troops especially if grounds could be cited for an Iraqi government that’s incapable of taking care of itself. A campaign promise he had to break they would say. His pride will not let him accept the surge was right or the war for that matter and to keep people from second guessing him, he must stay the course. Be against the war but accept the surge as fact.

The surge means more for Bush than anyone out there. Bush’s legacy is tied to this war and if minimal peace is breaking out the Democrats need to turn their focus somewhere else. Perhaps finding some way to impeach Bush for lying us into the war in the first place. I guess what keeps them from jumping into that mess is there would be enough Democrats who could be brought up on charges as well.

War is ugly plain and simple. Today it seems the reason to go to war is no longer black and white and perhaps it never was. There are way too many people who drink the Kool –Aid and accept what the government says when it takes us into conflict. With all the lies attached to this war somebody’s head needs to be on the chopping block. The list of suspects for indictment is long and starts with Bush and includes the just as complicit media.

McCain is too obsessed with Iraq and not winning is not an option. He seems to see something we can’t. If I were a psychologist I would love to try to analyze this obsession. All he sees is Islamic extremist and I’m wondering why he doesn’t take his obsession over to Afghanistan. That’s the hot war. But his never surrender stance is always couched in his passions regarding Iraq. He seems to be channeling his own anger over the defeat in Vietnam. That war has never ended for him and somehow it has been channeled to Iraq.

On the other hand, when it comes to Afghanistan, no one is talking about winning that conflict. No timetables here. Maybe it’s because the conflict could widen destabilizing nuclear armed Pakistan. Who knows? But when the media and nation begins to pay a little more attention there than they have in the past seven years, what will be the win or exit strategy?

I used to be a fan of McCain. I thought the Karl Rove mafia criminally roughed him up in the 2000 campaign. I loved his maverick ways. I thought he found a way to put the Republican party on its ear. Now I can only sit back and watch with pity.

You've Got To Be Veeping Kidding

The veepstakes have been the best handicapped game of this political season and now word has been leaked that McCain may announce his pick this week. No doubt to steal some of the limelight from the Obamapolooza world tour going on in a foreign country near you. The only way McCain steals limelight is if he picks someone who is not a White Anglo-Saxon Protestant male. The last time I looked nine-tenths of the Republican party is mostly WASPs and male.

If he were to pick from the minority base it would not put Obama on the defensive. By McCain, metaphorically speaking, raising his skirt so soon, makes it possible for Obama to shorten his list even more and pick a running mate who is sound and bridges whatever ideological gaps he may have. This doesn’t mean Hillary’s odds improve but others whom you wouldn’t think have chances as well. He can’t counterpunch by bringing in a woman but don’t be surprised if he chooses a WASP male. All of a sudden I’m hearing Joe Biden’s stock has risen. Then again, don’t be totally shocked if he rolls the dice and chooses Hillary. Despite the baggage, the symbolism of the ticket has weight and you have to take note, the Obama camp is truly wrestling with this knowing full well how whatever way they spin it, an Obama/Clinton ticket will make for a lively fall and throw the pollsters for a loop.

For Obama, his brand still has spark, but it has matured and needs a kick in the pants. Whomever Obama picks, that person needs to do just more than be based on voter calculation and what states the running mate helps him win. That person needs to help the ticket steal the PR/Marketing fire and put McCain so far back on his heels his concession will not be if and where, it will be when and perhaps how soon before the last poll has closed.